Welcome to my preview of tonight’s 2009
MLB draft. I’ve tried to collect together a few bits and pieces, from
rumours to cold hard facts, to wet everyone’s appetite for the big
event.

The Basics

The
draft takes place, for the first time in it’s history, at the MLB
Network’s studios in New Jersey tonight. The draft order is chosen by
team’s regular season record in 2008 after being rejigged slightly by
the awarding of compensatory draft picks after the signing of free
agents (for instance, the Mets weren’t actually the second best team
in baseball, they just lost their first round pick to the Angels
after they signed Francisco Rodriguez in the off-season). The draft
order in full is available on MLB.com’s draft coverage.

What we know

Stephen
Strasburg

The
best player in the draft, by near across the board consensus, is
20-year-old San Diego

State right-handed pitcher Stephen Strasburg.
This year he posted an eye popping record of 13-1 with an 1.32ERA,
65H, 16ER, 19BB and 195Ks in 109 innings. The hype machine has gone
into overdrive with Strasburg, with some describing him as a once in
a life-time sort of pitcher. Whilst his college coach, the Hall of
Famer Tony Gwynn, has advised caution some have speculated that his
100mph+ fastball and control of his off-speed piches could be good
enough for him to enter a major league rotation this year. The only
sticking point is the asking price that he comes at. Agent to the
stars (and Oliver Perez) Scott Boras is allegedly asking 6 years and
$50m. Despite this it is still thought that the Washington Nationals
will take Strasburg with the first overall pick.

Dustin
Ackley

After
Strasburg there is a perceived drop in talent. Most people are
picking 21-year-old first baseman/outfielder from the University of
North Carolina Dustin Ackley as the second best talent in the draft
and the best hitting prospect. Ackley has gained admirers for his bat
speed and control, alongside his baserunning. Question marks have
been raised over his fielding arm after having Tommy John surgery in
the off-season and how much power he will have in the big leagues.
Providing the price tag doesn’t put them off the Mariners are
expected to take Ackley with the 2^nd
overall pick tonight

Elsewhere

Outside
of the top two (and even that’s not nailed on) the rest of the picks
are pretty much anyone’s guess. The main two stumbling blocks of
injury-risk and signability mean that we’ll have to wait until
tonight to see exactly what route teams like the Padres, Pirates and
Orioles are willing to take.

Writer
Jonathan Mayo offers
his first round predictions and gives an overview of the remaining
potential first round picks.

The Risks involved

Signability

The
draft is something that I really, really like about baseball. I’m
almost excited for the Nationals to see how they can build their
ballclub with players like Strasburg and whoever else they take in
the first round. It seems an admirably fair system where the worst
teams are given the best chances to rebuild. The obvious example of
this is, of course, the Tampa Bay Rays’ appearance in the World
Series last year, thanks in no small part to them having four 1^st
overall picks in the June draft in the last ten years.

After
last years prolonged signing of Pedro Alvarez for the Pirates and the
$50m price tag on Strasburg this year it seems a legitimate concern
that the rising cost of signing college and high-school players,
combined with the current economic climate, may eventually price
smaller teams out of the market and let the better players fall later
in the first round to the bigger teams who can afford them. This
would obviously completely debase the whole idea of the draft.

Obviously,
whether a player actually wants to sign for the team that has drafted
him is another draft risk factor. Baseball can offer a far less
glamorous trip to the big time than, say, basketball or hockey. A
young player taken in the draft may be more tempted by that football
scholarship than working for three years in the minor leagues before
being given a shot at the bigs.

Injuries

Michael
Lewis’ book Moneyball
made famous (amongst other things) Billy Beane and the Oakland A’s
strategy of drafting only college ballplayers despite the amount of
talent in high schools. Perhaps the main thinking behind this was
obvious; college ballplayers were closer to their major league
counterparts in physicality. A 17 or 18-year-old arm is obviously
very different to that of a 21-year-old arm that has been through the
rigours of the college season and has seen the player’s physique grow
more into that of ‘a man’. The risk for teams drafting high school
players is that that fastball pitcher gets injured and never regains
his velocity or cannot cope with the adjustments made in his
mechanics in order to better control his off-speed pitches. Dayn
Perry, in his article ‘What Happened to Todd Van Poppel?’ in Baseball
Prospectus’ excellent Baseball
Between the Nnumbers
quotes Rany Jazayerli’s study of every draft from 1984 to 1999 and
his findings that between 1984 and 1991 41% of high school draftees
went on to reach the major leagues compared to 60% of college
players. Fans of fantasy baseball will probably recognise a certain
high-risk/high-reward sort of thinking as regards drafting highly
touted high school prospects.

As I write this now the rumours continue to fly around about who’s being taken in the first round, who’s asking for a big contract and who the best players actually are. It will probably be a year at the very least before we can properly evaluate this draft and see who the bargains and busts were. There could well be someone who gets taken outside the top five rounds who turns out to be the steal of the draft. Only time will tell, and that’s what’s brilliant about baseball.

Enjoy the draft tonight, thanks for reading.