How do the Tigers win games?
As I write this the Detroit Tigers sit on top of the AL Central, 5.5 games ahead of the Twins.
At this point I think we can be reasonably confident of seeing the boys from Motown in the postseason (Baseball Prospectus gives them an 85.97% chance of winning the division).
A look at the Tigers lineup, however, shows a list of players hitting mainly somewhere between .230 and .270...and Miguel Cabrera
The team ranks, overall, 9th worst in baseball in terms of average, 10th worst in on base percentage and fifth worst in slugging.
Can it really be just the work of pitchers Justin Verlander, Edwin Jackson, Rick Porcello and Jarrod Washburn that have got the Tigers where they are, then? Or are there other factors at play?
Defense
Obviously, the strength (or lack of strength) of the division helps the Tigers a lot. Their record would be good enough only for 3rd place in the AL East and AL West. Where they are miles ahead of those in their division is in their defense.
Fielding is one aspect of baseball that is hard to quantify with statistics. Helpfully, Michel Lichtman of Baseball Think Factory came up with UZR (ultimate zone rating) which is essentially, using the definition from Fangraphs, "the number of runs above or below average a fielder is in both range runs, outfield arm runs, double play runs and error runs combined". For a far greater explanation I would recommend reading Lichtman's articles here and here.
In terms of UZR the Tigers infield scores, by my calculations, a combined 22 UZR. For some context I compared that, first to the other teams in their division, and then to some other teams in baseball. Here is how they scored, remember this is just the infield (1B, 2B, 3B, SS):
If we expand on this and add in the outfielders UZRs we can see that the Tigers have an even greater advantage over their divisional rivals:
Pitching
One of the major factors in the Tigers winning games this year has been the presence of a rejuvinated Justin Verlander combined with Edwin Jackson, aquired from the Tampa Bay Rays, fulfilling his potential. This has been backed up by better than expected pitching of rookie Rick Porcello and servicable outings from Armando Galarraga and Jarrod Washburn. Here's a look at the Tigers starting pitchers for most of the year (I haven't included the newly recalled Nate Robertson). The stats I have used in this table are those that seem to relate closely to Detroit's excellent fielding: BABIP (batting average, balls in play - how many balls that are hit fair have fallen in for hits, a high BABIP indicates a pitcher has been unlucky or had bad fielders behind him, a low BAPID might be the reason for a pitchers low ERA or indicate they are backed up by good fielders); GB/FB (groundball to fly-ball ratio); GB% (percentage of ground balls) and then how often each starter throws each of his pitches and that pitches average velocity:
nb. FB=fastball, SL=slider, CH=changeup, CB=curveball, FB%=percentage of pitches that are fastballs, FBv=average velocity of fastball. etc.
We can find more clues to the Tigers' success in these numbers. Porcello, for instance, has benefitted from that 22 UZR infield. His 2.00 groundball to fastball ratio is 6th in all of baseball. It seems reasonable, therefore, to assume that Porcello's groundball tendencies, coupled with his teams excellent infield defence is a good recipe for keeping hitters off the bases. [Sam Page on Amazin' Avenue made the excellent point that the ability of a pitcher's infield teammates can sometimes have a large bearing on their ERAs and, consequently, how they are perceived using a comparison of Porcello and Mike Pelfrey, two groundball pitchers, one playing in front of an excellent defence, one playing in front of a poor one.]. This perhaps also gives the rookie Porcello more confidence in using his fastball (75.3% of the time), knowing that even if the batter can hit the ball there is a good chance his fielders can still make a play.
With this in mind, it is a bit surprising to see that there aren't other pitcher's in Detroit's rotation that have high groundball to flyball ratios.
What I did find interesting was Jarrod Washburn's very low BABIP. This would seem to indicate that Washburn has been almost freakishly lucky that fielders have been able to make plays on balls he's allowed to be hit in play (or, hitters against Washburn are very much not "hitting 'em where they ain't"). But we can also take into consideration that Washburn has played in front of, not only Detroit's good defence, but that of the Mariners (12.1 infield UZR+52 outfield UZR = 64.1 team UZR(!)). So we can say, at least, that Washburn found a team that suited him when he was traded in July. This could explain Washburn's low ERA which does not seem to equate to the pitcher I am watching whenever I've seen him pitch for Detroit.
It also looks like Verlander has been unlucky with balls hit in play. I would guess that this number is skewed due to how fantastic a pitcher Verlander is and the number of strikeouts he gets, ie. he doesn't allow balls in play as often as Washburn.
I think that's probably enough for now. What I've basically tried to do is show reasons why a team with mainly average batting averages can still be a good team and a fun team to watch. The factors that keep Detroit atop of the AL Central are seemingly excellent defence and a combination of excellent and lucky pitchers which is something a lot of other teams would love to have. I still think that they may not get very far should they make the playoffs but I'd really like to be proved wrong.
[all stats from what is truly one of the best resources in all of Internetland, www.fangraphs.com]
At this point I think we can be reasonably confident of seeing the boys from Motown in the postseason (Baseball Prospectus gives them an 85.97% chance of winning the division).A look at the Tigers lineup, however, shows a list of players hitting mainly somewhere between .230 and .270...and Miguel Cabrera
The team ranks, overall, 9th worst in baseball in terms of average, 10th worst in on base percentage and fifth worst in slugging.Can it really be just the work of pitchers Justin Verlander, Edwin Jackson, Rick Porcello and Jarrod Washburn that have got the Tigers where they are, then? Or are there other factors at play?
Defense
Obviously, the strength (or lack of strength) of the division helps the Tigers a lot. Their record would be good enough only for 3rd place in the AL East and AL West. Where they are miles ahead of those in their division is in their defense.
Fielding is one aspect of baseball that is hard to quantify with statistics. Helpfully, Michel Lichtman of Baseball Think Factory came up with UZR (ultimate zone rating) which is essentially, using the definition from Fangraphs, "the number of runs above or below average a fielder is in both range runs, outfield arm runs, double play runs and error runs combined". For a far greater explanation I would recommend reading Lichtman's articles here and here.
In terms of UZR the Tigers infield scores, by my calculations, a combined 22 UZR. For some context I compared that, first to the other teams in their division, and then to some other teams in baseball. Here is how they scored, remember this is just the infield (1B, 2B, 3B, SS):
Tigers 22As we can see, the Tigers have by far the best defensive infield in their division and are bettered only by the Angels in the teams currently holding down playoff spots. The only player with minus UZR is Ramon Santiago with -0.9 at 2B and -2 at shortstop.
White Sox -4.1
Twins -9
Indians -8.5
Royals -33.6
Red Sox -3.2
Yankees -7.1
Cubs 5.7
Dodgers 10
Mariners 12.1
Rays 19.9
Phillies 23.5
Angels 30.5
Mets -23.2
If we expand on this and add in the outfielders UZRs we can see that the Tigers have an even greater advantage over their divisional rivals:
This could, then, go towards showing us how the relatively light-hitting Tigers have taken control of this rather weak division. Detroit's fielding looks even more important when shown in the context of their pitching.
Tigers OF UZR 21.8, total (OF UZR+infield UZR) 43.8
Twins OF UZR -23.6, total -32.6
White Sox OF UZR -18.8, total -22.9
Indians OF UZR -13.8, total -22.3
Royals OF UZR -8, total -41.6
Pitching
One of the major factors in the Tigers winning games this year has been the presence of a rejuvinated Justin Verlander combined with Edwin Jackson, aquired from the Tampa Bay Rays, fulfilling his potential. This has been backed up by better than expected pitching of rookie Rick Porcello and servicable outings from Armando Galarraga and Jarrod Washburn. Here's a look at the Tigers starting pitchers for most of the year (I haven't included the newly recalled Nate Robertson). The stats I have used in this table are those that seem to relate closely to Detroit's excellent fielding: BABIP (batting average, balls in play - how many balls that are hit fair have fallen in for hits, a high BABIP indicates a pitcher has been unlucky or had bad fielders behind him, a low BAPID might be the reason for a pitchers low ERA or indicate they are backed up by good fielders); GB/FB (groundball to fly-ball ratio); GB% (percentage of ground balls) and then how often each starter throws each of his pitches and that pitches average velocity:
nb. FB=fastball, SL=slider, CH=changeup, CB=curveball, FB%=percentage of pitches that are fastballs, FBv=average velocity of fastball. etc.We can find more clues to the Tigers' success in these numbers. Porcello, for instance, has benefitted from that 22 UZR infield. His 2.00 groundball to fastball ratio is 6th in all of baseball. It seems reasonable, therefore, to assume that Porcello's groundball tendencies, coupled with his teams excellent infield defence is a good recipe for keeping hitters off the bases. [Sam Page on Amazin' Avenue made the excellent point that the ability of a pitcher's infield teammates can sometimes have a large bearing on their ERAs and, consequently, how they are perceived using a comparison of Porcello and Mike Pelfrey, two groundball pitchers, one playing in front of an excellent defence, one playing in front of a poor one.]. This perhaps also gives the rookie Porcello more confidence in using his fastball (75.3% of the time), knowing that even if the batter can hit the ball there is a good chance his fielders can still make a play.
With this in mind, it is a bit surprising to see that there aren't other pitcher's in Detroit's rotation that have high groundball to flyball ratios.
What I did find interesting was Jarrod Washburn's very low BABIP. This would seem to indicate that Washburn has been almost freakishly lucky that fielders have been able to make plays on balls he's allowed to be hit in play (or, hitters against Washburn are very much not "hitting 'em where they ain't"). But we can also take into consideration that Washburn has played in front of, not only Detroit's good defence, but that of the Mariners (12.1 infield UZR+52 outfield UZR = 64.1 team UZR(!)). So we can say, at least, that Washburn found a team that suited him when he was traded in July. This could explain Washburn's low ERA which does not seem to equate to the pitcher I am watching whenever I've seen him pitch for Detroit.
It also looks like Verlander has been unlucky with balls hit in play. I would guess that this number is skewed due to how fantastic a pitcher Verlander is and the number of strikeouts he gets, ie. he doesn't allow balls in play as often as Washburn.
I think that's probably enough for now. What I've basically tried to do is show reasons why a team with mainly average batting averages can still be a good team and a fun team to watch. The factors that keep Detroit atop of the AL Central are seemingly excellent defence and a combination of excellent and lucky pitchers which is something a lot of other teams would love to have. I still think that they may not get very far should they make the playoffs but I'd really like to be proved wrong.
[all stats from what is truly one of the best resources in all of Internetland, www.fangraphs.com]
Tigers have had the offensive firepower for two seasons, but thier pitching seemed to fail them in 2008.
This season it has become a bit of a perfect storm as both sides of their game has come together at the right time.
The recent Rays vs Tigers series in the Trop., where teams usually do not win showed they have the stuff to go far in the playoffs.
Pitching is superior to even the 2007 team right now, and will be a huge factor in how far they can go in the playoffs.
Do not mistake their division as weak, or they will sweep you in a heartbeat.
Rays Renegade
http://raysrenegade.mlblogs.com
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It's almost like it was written for me! Not gonna pretend I understand all of it just yet, but what you've said makes alot of sense in the context of what I've seen and what I kno about the Tigers and there division (and of course B.Inge). But obviously you're wrong about the Tigers not going far in Play-offs! Excellent work once again!
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